Datos, hipótesis y resultados del modelo propio revisado. Se mantienen los votos oficiales de 2023; no es predicción electoral.
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{
"source": "BOE-A-2023-18907 definitive results2023 including CERA",
"candidateVoteTotal": 24487414,
"validVoteTotalIncludingBlank": 24688087,
"blankVotes": 200673,
"nullVotes": 264360,
"numberDistricts": 52,
"actualReconstructionAll52Matches": true,
"method": "Exact rational arithmetic; actual3% valid votes per district, Ceuta/Melilla plurality; standard Sainte-Laguë1,3,5; nationalHare totals and350 integer seats; national experiments keep official party identifiers separate including PSOE/PSC. All strategic behaviour fixed.",
"parties": [
{
"party": "PP",
"votes": 8160837,
"shareCandidateVotes": 33.32665915641398,
"actual": 137,
"provincial_SL": 127,
"national_DH_no_threshold": 120,
"national_Hare_no_threshold": 117,
"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 129
},
{
"party": "PSOE",
"votes": 6600383,
"shareCandidateVotes": 26.954185525674536,
"actual": 102,
"provincial_SL": 97,
"national_DH_no_threshold": 97,
"national_Hare_no_threshold": 94,
"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 105
},
{
"party": "VOX",
"votes": 3057000,
"shareCandidateVotes": 12.483964211165786,
"actual": 33,
"provincial_SL": 43,
"national_DH_no_threshold": 45,
"national_Hare_no_threshold": 44,
"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 49
},
{
"party": "SUMAR",
"votes": 3044996,
"shareCandidateVotes": 12.434943109958446,
"actual": 31,
"provincial_SL": 37,
"national_DH_no_threshold": 45,
"national_Hare_no_threshold": 44,
"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 48
},
{
"party": "PSC",
"votes": 1221335,
"shareCandidateVotes": 4.987603019248991,
"actual": 19,
"provincial_SL": 17,
"national_DH_no_threshold": 18,
"national_Hare_no_threshold": 18,
"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 19
},
{
"party": "ERC",
"votes": 466020,
"shareCandidateVotes": 1.9031000986874318,
"actual": 7,
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"national_Hare_no_threshold": 7,
"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 0
},
{
"party": "JUNTS",
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"actual": 7,
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"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 0
},
{
"party": "BILDU",
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"shareCandidateVotes": 1.3685765267006145,
"actual": 6,
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"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 0
},
{
"party": "PNV",
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"shareCandidateVotes": 1.1323735532057406,
"actual": 5,
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"national_Hare_no_threshold": 4,
"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 0
},
{
"party": "BNG",
"votes": 153995,
"shareCandidateVotes": 0.6288740820080062,
"actual": 1,
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"national_Hare_no_threshold": 2,
"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 0
},
{
"party": "CC",
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"shareCandidateVotes": 0.4751951349374826,
"actual": 1,
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"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 0
},
{
"party": "UPN",
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"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 0
},
{
"party": "PACMA",
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"shareCandidateVotes": 0.691118302651313,
"actual": 0,
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"national_DH_no_threshold": 2,
"national_Hare_no_threshold": 2,
"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 0
},
{
"party": "CUP",
"votes": 99644,
"shareCandidateVotes": 0.40691924431056703,
"actual": 0,
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},
{
"party": "FO",
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},
{
"party": "NC",
"votes": 45595,
"shareCandidateVotes": 0.1861976932313065,
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"national_Hare_no_threshold": 1,
"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 0
},
{
"party": "PDECAT",
"votes": 32016,
"shareCandidateVotes": 0.1307447164490297,
"actual": 0,
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"national_Hare_no_threshold": 1,
"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 0
},
{
"party": "RECORTES",
"votes": 23421,
"shareCandidateVotes": 0.09564505259722403,
"actual": 0,
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"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 0
},
{
"party": "PUMJ",
"votes": 23290,
"shareCandidateVotes": 0.09511008389861011,
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},
{
"party": "UPL",
"votes": 23201,
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},
{
"party": "EXISTE",
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"shareCandidateVotes": 0.08347145190586477,
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},
{
"party": "PCTE",
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},
{
"party": "GEROABAI",
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},
{
"party": "SY",
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},
{
"party": "ADELANTE",
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},
{
"party": "EB",
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},
{
"party": "JM",
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},
{
"party": "XAV",
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},
{
"party": "BQEX",
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},
{
"party": "CJ",
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},
{
"party": "EV",
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},
{
"party": "FE",
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},
{
"party": "PAR",
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},
{
"party": "PH",
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},
{
"party": "XH",
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},
{
"party": "VP",
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},
{
"party": "ZSI",
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},
{
"party": "VB",
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},
{
"party": "PMR",
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},
{
"party": "AHORA",
"votes": 1674,
"shareCandidateVotes": 0.0068361648967914706,
"actual": 0,
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},
{
"party": "AUTONOMOS",
"votes": 1446,
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},
{
"party": "EVB",
"votes": 1442,
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},
{
"party": "CPM",
"votes": 1298,
"shareCandidateVotes": 0.00530068221985384,
"actual": 0,
"provincial_SL": 0,
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},
{
"party": "JXG",
"votes": 1218,
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},
{
"party": "EVPCAS",
"votes": 1184,
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},
{
"party": "PREPAL",
"votes": 964,
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"actual": 0,
"provincial_SL": 0,
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},
{
"party": "SC",
"votes": 963,
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"actual": 0,
"provincial_SL": 0,
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"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 0
},
{
"party": "ALM",
"votes": 874,
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},
{
"party": "FIA",
"votes": 506,
"shareCandidateVotes": 0.002066367645027768,
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},
{
"party": "3E",
"votes": 484,
"shareCandidateVotes": 0.0019765255735048216,
"actual": 0,
"provincial_SL": 0,
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"national_Hare_no_threshold": 0,
"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 0
},
{
"party": "UDCA",
"votes": 463,
"shareCandidateVotes": 0.0018907672325056454,
"actual": 0,
"provincial_SL": 0,
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"national_Hare_no_threshold": 0,
"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 0
},
{
"party": "GITV",
"votes": 366,
"shareCandidateVotes": 0.001494645371699927,
"actual": 0,
"provincial_SL": 0,
"national_DH_no_threshold": 0,
"national_Hare_no_threshold": 0,
"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 0
},
{
"party": "PUEDE",
"votes": 269,
"shareCandidateVotes": 0.0010985235108942088,
"actual": 0,
"provincial_SL": 0,
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"national_Hare_no_threshold": 0,
"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 0
},
{
"party": "EVR",
"votes": 265,
"shareCandidateVotes": 0.0010821885887991275,
"actual": 0,
"provincial_SL": 0,
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"national_Hare_no_threshold": 0,
"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 0
},
{
"party": "LB",
"votes": 263,
"shareCandidateVotes": 0.001074021127751587,
"actual": 0,
"provincial_SL": 0,
"national_DH_no_threshold": 0,
"national_Hare_no_threshold": 0,
"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 0
},
{
"party": "UNIDOS",
"votes": 253,
"shareCandidateVotes": 0.001033183822513884,
"actual": 0,
"provincial_SL": 0,
"national_DH_no_threshold": 0,
"national_Hare_no_threshold": 0,
"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 0
},
{
"party": "RSD",
"votes": 165,
"shareCandidateVotes": 0.0006738155364220983,
"actual": 0,
"provincial_SL": 0,
"national_DH_no_threshold": 0,
"national_Hare_no_threshold": 0,
"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 0
},
{
"party": "CCD",
"votes": 153,
"shareCandidateVotes": 0.0006248107701368547,
"actual": 0,
"provincial_SL": 0,
"national_DH_no_threshold": 0,
"national_Hare_no_threshold": 0,
"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 0
},
{
"party": "FC",
"votes": 115,
"shareCandidateVotes": 0.0004696290102335837,
"actual": 0,
"provincial_SL": 0,
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"national_Hare_no_threshold": 0,
"national_Hare_3percent_valid": 0
}
],
"metrics": {
"actual": {
"totalSeats": 350,
"partiesWithSeat": 12,
"sumAbsoluteDifferenceDividedBy2": 9.642412057067363,
"Gallagher": 5.579160551040999
},
"provincial_SL": {
"totalSeats": 350,
"partiesWithSeat": 14,
"sumAbsoluteDifferenceDividedBy2": 4.646060216893467,
"Gallagher": 2.630254561830834
},
"national_DH_no_threshold": {
"totalSeats": 350,
"partiesWithSeat": 13,
"sumAbsoluteDifferenceDividedBy2": 2.680271424332515,
"Gallagher": 1.051696723581937
},
"national_Hare_no_threshold": {
"totalSeats": 350,
"partiesWithSeat": 17,
"sumAbsoluteDifferenceDividedBy2": 1.2680107421714706,
"Gallagher": 0.34187854852137406
},
"national_Hare_3percent_valid": {
"totalSeats": 350,
"partiesWithSeat": 5,
"sumAbsoluteDifferenceDividedBy2": 9.812644977538264,
"Gallagher": 4.283890413999856
}
},
"PSOEPresentationRule": "Calculate PSOE and PSC separately, then add for table only. A new joint national list changes rounding; sensitivity supplied separately.",
"combinedPSOEPSCHareSensitivity": {
"PP": 117,
"VOX": 44,
"SUMAR": 44,
"ERC": 7,
"JUNTS": 6,
"BILDU": 5,
"PNV": 4,
"BNG": 2,
"CC": 2,
"UPN": 1,
"PACMA": 2,
"CUP": 1,
"FO": 1,
"NC": 1,
"PDECAT": 1,
"RECORTES": 0,
"PUMJ": 0,
"UPL": 0,
"EXISTE": 0,
"PCTE": 0,
"GEROABAI": 0,
"SY": 0,
"ADELANTE": 0,
"EB": 0,
"JM": 0,
"XAV": 0,
"BQEX": 0,
"CJ": 0,
"EV": 0,
"FE": 0,
"PAR": 0,
"PH": 0,
"XH": 0,
"VP": 0,
"ZSI": 0,
"VB": 0,
"PMR": 0,
"AHORA": 0,
"AUTONOMOS": 0,
"EVB": 0,
"CPM": 0,
"JXG": 0,
"EVPCAS": 0,
"PREPAL": 0,
"SC": 0,
"ALM": 0,
"FIA": 0,
"3E": 0,
"UDCA": 0,
"GITV": 0,
"PUEDE": 0,
"EVR": 0,
"LB": 0,
"UNIDOS": 0,
"RSD": 0,
"CCD": 0,
"FC": 0,
"PSOE_PSC": 112
},
"teruel": {
"PP": 26586,
"PSOE": 22226,
"SUMAR": 4126,
"sumPSOESumar": 26352,
"PPsecondQuotient": "13293",
"leftSecondQuotient": "13176",
"additionalVotesToEqualTotalsAndQuotients": 234,
"additionalVotesToGuaranteeAboveTie": 235,
"tieRule": "LOREG163.1.d: equal total votes and quotient => draw for first tied allocation",
"voteTransferIsAssumption": true
},
"districts": {
"Albacete": {
"seats": 4,
"votes": {
"PP": 88299,
"PSOE": 76322,
"VOX": 36750,
"SUMAR": 15834,
"PSC": 0,
"ERC": 0,
"JUNTS": 0,
"BILDU": 0,
"PNV": 0,
"BNG": 0,
"CC": 0,
"UPN": 0,
"PACMA": 1261,
"CUP": 0,
"FO": 381,
"NC": 0,
"PDECAT": 0,
"RECORTES": 185,
"PUMJ": 325,
"UPL": 0,
"EXISTE": 0,
"PCTE": 0,
"GEROABAI": 0,
"SY": 0,
"ADELANTE": 0,
"EB": 0,
"JM": 0,
"XAV": 0,
"BQEX": 0,
"CJ": 0,
"EV": 0,
"FE": 0,
"PAR": 0,
"PH": 0,
"XH": 0,
"VP": 0,
"ZSI": 0,
"VB": 0,
"PMR": 0,
"AHORA": 0,
"AUTONOMOS": 0,
"EVB": 0,
"CPM": 0,
"JXG": 0,
"EVPCAS": 0,
"PREPAL": 0,
"SC": 0,
"ALM": 0,
"FIA": 0,
"3E": 0,
"UDCA": 0,
"GITV": 0,
"PUEDE": 0,
"EVR": 0,
"LB": 0,
"UNIDOS": 0,
"RSD": 0,
"CCD": 0,
"FC": 0
},
"actual": {
"PP": 2,
"PSOE": 2,
"VOX": 0,
"SUMAR": 0,
"PSC": 0,
"ERC": 0,
"JUNTS": 0,
"BILDU": 0,
"PNV": 0,
"BNG": 0,
"CC": 0,
"UPN": 0
},
"electors": 307988,
"voters": 223917,
"valid": 221191,
"candidates": 219357,
"blank": 1834,
"null": 2726
},
"Alicante/Alacant": {
"seats": 12,
"votes": {
"PP": 330293,
"PSOE": 287737,
"VOX": 146133,
"SUMAR": 115787,
"PSC": 0,
"ERC": 0,
"JUNTS": 0,
"BILDU": 0,
"PNV": 0,
"BNG": 0,
"CC": 0,
"UPN": 0,
"PACMA": 7335,
"CUP": 0,
"FO": 1724,
"NC": 0,
"PDECAT": 0,
"RECORTES": 1135,
"PUMJ": 0,
"UPL": 0,
"EXISTE": 0,
"PCTE": 0,
"GEROABAI": 0,
"SY": 0,
"ADELANTE": 0,
"EB": 0,
"JM": 0,
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